Quick short on Silver: update

I shorted silver a few days ago and wanted to post a chart of the trade.

Silver 1h chart

This is the 1h chart and I only use the daily, 4h, and 1h chart to trade.

As you can see silver did fall nicely so the trade worked out fine. When the trade was profitable I adjusted my stop loss to break even and let the trade do the work.

The trade went to 34% profit and back to 1% of profit when the trade was closed at break even. I wanted to let the trade run a bit longer since I already was at break even and I expected a bigger decline to $36.60.

When your reward is a multiple of your risk (2-3 or more) than you must not be right every time to make a profit. This time it did not work out.

Well it did get there eventually a few days later (and even a bit further), so my analysis was right.

Learning point: It is better to also look at the ATR (Average True Range) of the last 8 days on the daily time frame to look how much Silver moves in a day on average. So when you are close to 0.5 to 0.75 ATR you might start thinking about taking profits.

Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.
Andre Gide (French writer, humanist and moralist, 1869-1951)

The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice.
Henry Hazlitt (American journalist, economist, 1894-1993)

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