Not too long ago I wrote an article that bitcoin would keep dropping, and dropping like a rock kicked of a building it did, with around a $1000 decline. Wow! Let me refresh your mind a bit with a chart I posted in a previous article:

I said:

Where will we finally find a bottom? Nobody knows. Since it just keeps dropping without too much bad news. Ask yourself what will it do when there is a lot of bad news? So my educated guess is that we will go to the previous low and even do an overshoot and go below that.

There was more bad news, and it dropped like a bomb.  But as you know: ‘even a broken clock is right twice a day’. You can always find a person on the internet that is right on something. Now I am on the right side, but I just draw scenarios, things that might happen.

Some of my scenarios:

  1. My previous scenario was that after the rise to $9,948 we would get a wave down, like we are doing now, but we would bounce up the latest at $7,484. After that we would go up and take out $10,000. (Dismissed)
  2. Another scenario (pattern) was a triple bottom. So we have to stop at the current level for that! (current scenario)
  3. Also on my mind since February was the bigger drop to a price $6,000 and $3,000. (me trying to have a feel/predict the market)

I monitor the chart and look if I get confirmation for a scenario (1). If not I go to the next scenario currently scenario (2). And then to the next (3). So currently I look at the triple dip, but to be honest I expect a further down in Bitcoin because to attract more buyers the price has to come down. And also lots of people will not expect it and that is where the whales like to snatch our cash when the weaker hands sell their positions.

If you just look at TA then forget about my thought and focus on scenario 2. We will soon get some insight if the way is up or down?

Analysis

  • The 18th of May I drew the purple arrow down to the purple trend line and that is what has happened.
  • We are still in a downtrend
  • Nicely on the purple trendline
  • Also we see a triple bottom

Now we are in dangerous territory. If we go through the previous bottoms we probably will go to my first yellow dotted line. (Repeat for every break). So watch out, hold off your buying until we get some direction.

My thoughts

It can become really nasty if we fall through the previous lows.

  • The Altcoins will get hit so hard like you haven’t seen before.
  • Lots of people will have no hope anymore
  • More sell offs will occur
  • That will be the time that Bitcoin will rise again since BTC will be bought big time at a discount by the bigger players in the market.

When that will happen the good thing is that the market again will have some room to grow.

I expect a little bounce at the current levels. I am always open for scenario (2) the triple bottom pattern, but watch out if we fall further down!

 

Will we get a nasty drop for Bitcoin that most will not suspect?
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